What will the Fed decide on December 9?

GitHub · suggest a change · how to contribute

Framework

How the FOMC decides

• Twelve voters: the seven Board governors, the New York Fed president, and four of the other eleven Reserve Bank presidents in one-year rotation.¹¹ In 2026 the rotating voters are Hammack (Cleveland), Kashkari (Minneapolis), Logan (Dallas) and Paulson (Philadelphia).¹⁵
• Eight scheduled meetings a year. The decision is a change in the target range for the federal funds rate, announced at 2:00 pm ET on the meeting's second day, with each vote and dissent named.^1,5
• Participants make no policy remarks from the second Saturday before a meeting until the day after it.⁹

What it weighs

• Two goals: maximum employment and stable prices. Inflation has a number, 2% a year in the PCE price index; maximum employment has none.¹²
• When the goals conflict, a "balanced approach": how far each is from its goal, and how long each would take to return.¹²
• Policy acts with a lag, so decisions look to the outlook and the balance of risks, including risks to the financial system. No formula sets the rate.¹²

Under Chair Warsh, since May 2026

• His standard for action: "We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed." In September the Committee judged it not met and hiked.² "Trends matter. Data points are noisy."²
• The statement dropped its guidance on future moves in June.¹⁴ Warsh does not submit a projection for the dot plot.¹³ Signals now come from the minutes, the other participants' projections and voters' speeches.

Current situation

The federal funds target range is 3.75-4.00%. The FOMC meets Dec 8-9 and announces its decision at 2:00 pm ET on Dec 9, with new projections.^1,5

Meeting	Decision	Vote	Dissents
Jun 17	Hold at 3.50-3.75%	12-0
Jul 29	Hold	9-3	Hammack, Kashkari, Logan, for +25bp
Sep 16	Hike 25bp	12-0
Oct 28	Hold	10-2	Cook, Hammack, for +25bp

• The September projections' median put the end-2026 rate one 25bp hike above today's range.³
• October core CPI rose 0.3%, as in August and September.⁴ Unemployment was 4.1%.⁶
• Waller supports a 25bp hike in December and said 50bp "should be considered" if core CPI ran around 0.3% or higher.⁷ Logan wants "at least two more" 25bp hikes.⁸

The question

What will the FOMC decide at its Dec 8-9 meeting: cut more than 25bp, cut 25bp, hold, hike 25bp or hike more than 25bp? If the meeting is cancelled, the answer is hold. Rules →

Before the decision

Nov 18	Minutes of the October meeting
Nov 25	October PCE; Q3 GDP, second estimate; Beige Book
Nov 28	Blackout begins: no policy remarks by participants until Dec 109
Dec 4	November jobs report
Dec 9	Decision, 2:00 pm ET

November CPI comes out Dec 10, after the decision.¹⁰

Model and forecast →

Sources

1. Federal Reserve. FOMC statement, 2026-10-28; earlier statements of Jun 17, Jul 29 and Sep 16.
2. Federal Reserve. Chair Warsh's press conference, 2026-09-16.
3. Federal Reserve. Summary of Economic Projections, 2026-09-16.
4. BLS. Consumer Price Index, October 2026.
5. Federal Reserve. FOMC meeting calendars.
6. BLS. The Employment Situation, October 2026.
7. Waller, 2026-11-10. The Economic Outlook and Some Thoughts on Labor Market Dynamism.
8. Logan, 2026-11-10. Economic and monetary policy outlook.
9. FOMC. Policy on External Communications of Committee Participants, para. 7.
10. BLS. Release schedule, December 2026; BEA release schedule; Federal Reserve calendar.
11. Federal Reserve. Federal Open Market Committee: structure.
12. FOMC. Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy, reaffirmed 2026-01-27.
13. Federal Reserve. Chair Warsh's press conference, 2026-10-28.
14. Federal Reserve. FOMC statement, 2026-06-17, against the 2026-04-29 statement.
15. Federal Reserve. Minutes of the FOMC, 2026-09-15/16: voting members.

Last updated 2026-11-13

Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to trade.